Forecasting accuracy in SCM

[anandmadho]

Hi,

I'm new to forecasting techniques in the SCM area.

I'm working on a project for a IT hardware company that distributes material in the asia pacific region.

We are using smoothing techiques for forecasting purpose and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as a parameter for judging different models developed for forecasting.

Need to understand:

1) Is MAPE a good parameter to judge different models?
2) Are there any industry benchmark accuracy indicators (which parameter to use) at a product family series (say Routers) that I could use

Any document/ replies would be of utmost help. Thanks in advance

[Loggie]

Not many takers on this one! I would do a web search.

MAPE tends to get used more in manufacturing I think.

[subpad]

Dear all,
Can anybody list out the steps to followed for improving forecast accuracy and also the general assumption to be consider for forecasting of an item which help us to construct a forecast module.

many thanks!

Regards,
Subpad

[Jurgen]

I am cynical about the efficacy of the software out there for Demand Forecasting in my experience accuracy is built on a base of a rigorous S&OP regime. Its all about the the people and the information. We have some very good results using relatively inexpensive forecasting tools, circa AUD 10,000, while ensuring the inputs and the scenarios were accurate and well considered.